Ethio-Eritrean deadlock needs to end now, before it’s too late

A new episode in Ethio-Eritrean relations unfolded last week when Eritrea suspended its membership in the Inter Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) - the latest in a series of incidents between the two African nations over a row stemming from a border clash. This recent decision by Eritrea took place against the background of a continuing Ethiopian presence in Somalia and the diplomatic coup Ethiopia achieved from its involvement there, a result Eritrea clearly is not comfortable with.

The two nations continue to lock horns over issues of terrorism, supporting insurgencies, Somalia and pretty much anything. Accusations and counter accusations continue to flow from both capitals, leaving prospects for settling disputes very unlikely in the foreseeable future. The question then is whether relations can ever normalize between the two nations. One thing is clear: the increasing tensions between the two countries have overflowed into neighboring Somalia, threatening already dim hopes of reestablishing Somalia as a functioning state after years of chaos and anarchy. So far talks between the two nations have ended in recriminations and never ending volleys of accusations. The influence Ethiopia and Eritrea wield in the region has gathered momentum over the years, prompting one to wonder how much could have been done to bring stability to the Horn had a settlement between the countries been reached several years ago.

Eritrea suspending its membership from the regional bloc IGAD might have been driven by what Eritrea purports to be morale grounds, and could potentially backfire since it leaves Eritrea open to diplomatic isolation.
A potential border war and its likely endangering of regional peace should be a cause of consternation to all stakeholders. The recent hostage taking in Afar, attacks in Ogaden and a renewed insurgency in Somalia are all products of the reluctance to bridge gaps between the two nations. One wonders what the straw that breaks the camel’s back will be, and if it will indeed lead to an all out war. Saber rattling helps no one. It only fuels tensions that are already stretched to a breaking point.

The dilemma faced by potential peace brokers here rests on the fact that both nations wield influence in the region that can potentially do good. Fears of severing ties or alienating either nation could prove costly in the light of these influences.
The on-going standoff between Eritrea and Ethiopia is not helping either nation. Eritrean support for insurgent groups in Ethiopia does tax Eritrea’s coffers. And Ethiopia’s continued damage control and military flexing in the event of an all out war on Eritrea does take away resources that could help improve in-country socio-economic woes.

Cutting back on the rhetoric would certainly help in easing tensions and would be a stepping-stone for a genuine dialogue for peace. The region is not ready for a Cold War where regional peace, economic cooperation and cohesion are threatened over a bitter spat. Dialogue between the two nations should start and it should not be a matter that both sides insisting that the ball is in the other’s field. The border issue might be a sticking point initially, but talks have to start and an understanding should be reached. The current state of affairs cannot continue; innocent lives are being lost.

Peace brokers, allies and other players should know that hoping things sort themselves out is not a viable strategy. Somalia has an opportunity to end years of anarchy and lawlessness to finally becoming a full-fledged nation. We should all look at the ripple affecting this stalemate that has begun dashing opportunities for a better future.

It is important for the two nations to build on relations of mutual respect and dialogue and permanently cease propaganda warfare. A new chapter beckons. Will we see commitment to an agenda of peace and resolution move forward or we will continue to stay in this depressing state of heightened anxiety?

April 27, 2007