Time to worry about Kenya

It is no secret that since the announcement of the contested presidential election results on 30 December 2007, Kenya’s health has been deteriorating week after week. Whether the conflict in Kenya is tribal, between the Kikuyu and Luo, or generational, between the old and the new, it doesn’t matter anymore.
The tactics and strategies of the political elite have reached a point where peaceful and smooth transfer of political power using normal politics no longer seems a possibility in Kenya. In its apparent greedy move, the Kenyan elite seem to have engineered a destructive agenda.

I don’t usually buy the greed and violence theory, but when it comes to why the Kenyan leadership is acting the way it is, I am forced to take a second look on Paul Collier’s thesis. The Kenyan elite, particularly Kibaki and those close to him, have amassed a lot of wealth over the years since Kenyan independence. One would assume they have more than enough money for themselves, their families (including great-grand children) and their cronies. Any change of government could cost them nothing, comparing to what they have achieved in terms of economic power. Granted, their companies may not win government contracts as before, and they may lose some fraction of their assets in the coming years. But that is all. Whatever happens, a democratic change of government might only have caused some degree of personal economic shock, but not to the extent of losing all their privileged economic status.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest that had the incumbent gracefully departed from the political scene, its status - be it economic or political - would not have been threatened. Former president Moi is still protected. Unable to pull themselves out from the cesspool of personal enrichment, the political elite continue to squander Kenya’s only chance to a democratic transition and, indeed, political survival. Compare that to where Kenya was before the election, and what would have been happened to Kenya if there was a democratic transition, and reflect on how optimism and hope were mercilessly crushed by the extraordinary greed of a few politicians. Whether they rationalize their current political position in terms of defending an economic interest or an ethnic interest, it should not have mattered much, as the political transition in Kenya was not meant to be a radical revolutionary change that could result in new social and economic relations.

I don’t think any body was considering the radical restructuring of the Kenyan state. In fact, the leaders of those seeking change have similar economic interests and links with those opposing change. In such a situation, when there are no big losers, conflicts become minimal. The election was not a direct onslaught against those entrenched vested interests. There are some things that are worth fighting for - even if the cost is high. But I don’t think the cost of democratic transition on the incumbent is high in both political and monetary terms. Sacrificing big for a small interest (such as to keep an enterprise prosperous) is not fair. It is incomprehensible to see people take the whole country hostage for a perceived loss of a very small interest.

The Kenyan political (and economic) elite have become greedy to the extent of choosing a course that could cost them everything. It didn’t cross their minds that the ethnic card they have employed could lead to a loss – a loss of a magnitude one cannot imagine unless he himself becomes a victim. It is bad enough to see the regime encouraging or simply tolerating negative ethnicity. But it is equally disturbing to hear people who ought to know better explaining the crass behavior of the regime’s elites along ethnic lines as well. This is wrong and dangerous. Good leaders make protection of ethnic harmony and political unity the primary goal of their legacy.
But Kenya’s current “leaders” only seem to be capable of creating one phenomenal mess after another, pushing the country into anarchy, encouraging people to kill each other along ethnic lines. There may have been worse dictators, but Kenya may not have seen a bigger enemy than this regime. This is a regime that managed to turn opportunities of hope and optimism into misery and despair at a critical time of political transition.

Governments controlled by small cliques with partisan economic agendas are always a problem. When politicians are unable or unwilling to reach the level of defining the national interests of the state, they automatically become the source of internal and inter-state conflicts. Unfortunately, the situation has developed to a point where a violent showdown is highly likely. Unless the government accepts ODM’s demand for an executive prime ministerial post, the talks will definitely falter. This, coupled with the shopping spree for armaments by so many community and political “leaders” in the country, is enough reason to worry. Even small ethnic groups have learned that they should militarily prepare themselves, a lesson learned probably from Somalia.

The respite during the Kofi Annan-led negotiations was used by the drivers of violence for rearmament - not disarmament. Both sides - the government and the opposition - seem to have used the period of negotiations not to seriously reflect on what went wrong and revise their positions, but rather to reinforce and consolidate their positions. The Kibaki coalition is buying time to wear down both the opposition and the international community’s resolve. However, if the deadlock is allowed to continue, Kenya will descend into civil war.

As a result of the regime’s destructive path and the endless capacity of the political elite to fabricate ethnic agendas to cover up failures, Kenya’s future direction seems to be heading towards that of Somalia - instead of towards the vibrant future that was possible had the spirit of the pre-election period prevailed. The possibility of Somalization should not be under estimated.

Medhane Tadesse of CPRD is a long time specialist on issues of peace and security in the Horn of Africa. He can be reached at mt3002et@yahoo.com

February 29, 2008