Transporting relative peace and stability-the ultimate test for Meles

The millennium celebrations that were carried out during the past week happened to be the major single indicator of the values of relative peace and stability in this country. For the first time since the post controversial election 2005, people amassed on the streets of Addis Ababa, expressed their sentiment and went back home in a peaceful manner. This would have been impossible without the series of measures the incumbent have undertaken, in the past few months, and the consequent diffusion of tension in the center. As such the millennium serves to show the values of what a diffused tension meant.

What now worries me is the trouble and instabilities in some of the geographic peripheries like the Ogaden. Allegations of gross human right violations, torture, rape and arbitrary killings and arrest are sources of concern for any responsible citizen that wishes stability, unity and prosperity for this country. Metropolitans and urbanites cannot and should not afford the luxury of sitting cross-legged and watch a small crisis escalate into a severe humanitarian catastrophe.

The United Nations Monitoring Mission has already observed the ‘deteriorating situation’ in the concerned areas and noted that ‘human rights and protection situation for the civilian population in the areas of military operation is alarming and requires urgent attention.’
It is high time that the government and the urbanites started thinking of transporting ‘peace through peaceful means’ to the conflict prone peripheries. What we learnt from the diffused tension in Addis Ababa and other major towns is that if there is a good will and little effort, then mortal enemies could forge friendship, at most, and end hostilities, at least.

These are days when Prime Minister Meles Zenawi seems to be garnering the support of metropolitans by way of winning hearts and minds. Save the ardent critics of him, things are changing in Addis Ababa. Whatever theory one subscribes to, many would agree that there are some positive signs in Meles. The difference lies in exactly identifying the intentions behind the apparent positive measures by the incumbent. Is he doing all these to hold on to power indefinitely or is it out of noble cause for the good of the country?

Critics doubted the intention of his recent acts and statements. According to them, Meles is playing one card against the other-whenever there is trouble at the center he befriended the periphery and when there is pressing crisis in the peripheries he diffused tension in the center. These critics like to underline the political twists that occurred in the immediate post election 2005 election period. EPRDF was trying to make peace with OLF and ONLF so that it could avoid two wide fronts engagement at the same time- one in the peripheries with ONLF and OLF and the other in the center with CUD.

The critics continued to argue that Meles released the CUD leaderships and openly declared Ethiopian history to be much more than mere 100 or so years just to diffuse the long prevailed tension and negative peace at the center. And consequently to redirect energy, attention and security personnel of the incumbent to the Ogaden and other peripheries. Well, it is difficult to automatically verified or ruled out this theory, that is why we call them theories.

On the other hand, there are supporters of Meles who are dead sure that all these are mere symptom of maturity that came with ageing and experience. His supporters agreed that Meles is becoming a statesman and visionary who wanted to lead the country into economic prosperity and state of freedom.

So, how do we know which theory is more expressive of the situation on the ground? I think it takes some time and some test to know that. The test, the assignment for Meles would be to transport the relative peace and stability to the Ogaden. The test would be to materialize the reconciliatory spirit that came out through Meles’ mouth all the way through the Ogaden and other geographic and political peripheries.

If what the center, including Addis Ababa, is enjoying could be transported to those areas, then we know by our hearts and minds that Meles was and still is a truly statesman who has been exerting efforts for a caused of prosperous, united and stable Ethiopia. Let the little peace metropolitans and urbanites have also flow to the peripheries.

Kassahun Addis is an independent analyst of politics in the Horn of Africa. He can be reached at kassax@gmail.com.

September 24, 2007