I am not impressed!!

By Medhane Tadesse

have read the statement from the US government regarding tougher sanctions against the government of Sudan. It is too little too late. The problem of Sudan is basically attributed to the Sudanese themselves, mainly the Northern (riverine) elite that dominated political power in Sudan since independence. This being the case the role of international actors, mainly diplomats have been disastrous. A friend of mine once murmured that the solution to the current crisis in Sudan lies in putting international diplomats into a sinking ship. He was disgusted by the way the peace processes in Sudan were conceived, organized, and concluded by regional and international diplomats, with the effect of aggravating the problem and delaying the suffering of the Sudanese in the south, east and west. Most of these peace agreements were designed and concluded one at a time according to the timing of the Khartoum leadership, the same leadership responsible for the crisis, all ensured the continued relevance and legitimacy of the regime, contributed to its survival, apparently weakening the united strength of the Sudanese opposition. This approach could not alter the dominance of the National Congress Party/NCP/- the main source of the problem- and its monopolistic position in the security forces. The problem of international diplomats involved in “peace making’ in Sudan starts from the wrong characterization of the root cause of the crisis in Sudan. The model follows the misguided trend that subsequent peace processes could only address local issues, since the NCP alone is acknowledged as the legitimate authority to represent Sudanese national interests, which is not the case.

The assumption that the problems of the Sudan could be addressed by facilitating the signing of a peace deal and organizing peacekeeping (and humanitarian operations) in different geographic zones of the Sudan is wrong. The problem of Sudan lies at the Center. The solution is to be found there. The signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement/CPA/ was important to the extent that it helps in the gradual transformation of the Sudanese state. Apart from this objective it will not help much in terms of stability in Sudan and the region at large. That is not happening and the next two years will be decisive. The other peace agreements are, however, a disaster. The Darfur Peace Agreement/DPA/ and the east Sudan Deal are only important in further complicating the crisis in Sudan and aggravating the suffering of the people inhabiting those areas. The situation in Darfur is far worse than it was before the signing of the DPA. Larger part of the blame goes to external arbitration and diplomacy. The DPA was narrowly focused, misguided and deeply flawed; it probably ends up strengthening and legitimizing the regime in Khartoum at the cost of the struggle of the marginalized peoples and their representatives. As such it prolongs and often exacerbates the conflict all over the Sudan. The international community didn’t approach the problem in Sudan with one voice and organized action plan. The problem is yet to be solved. There are still contestants to the position of coordinating a unity conference among Darfurian rebel movements. The DPA led to further splits with the Darfurian movements and the priority of the international community should be to fix that.

I believe the SPLM or the GOSS is well positioned to run the Unity Process in Darfur, but others are still trying to spoil the whole initiative. Don’t proliferate and work hard to streamline the peace initiatives and narrow down the choices for the different rebel forces. Unless this is done and pressure is mounted on the Khartoum leadership, it is like repeating the same mistakes and expect a different outcome. Facilitating the entry of the UN to Darfur will not address the heart of the matter i.e. the crisis of the Sudanese state. The focus of any serious international engagement should be the regime in Khartoum. Unless you change your ways and means of engagement on the conflict zones in Sudan and seriously push the Sudanese leadership to make substantive changes on how things are run in Sudan, any effort directed at Darfur or any other location will change nothing. The problem is right there in front of you, whether or not you recognize it for what it is. The secret to success is not in ignoring it or denying it but in learning to cope with it. It is like the man who went on a photographic safari to take pictures of elephants. The only problem was that he didn’t know what an elephant looked like, so he returned to camp that night totally dejected. The problem is not geographic, but systemic and structural. Classifying conflicts in Sudan as east, south and west is incorrect. The problem lies at the center. Focus on the real problem, deal with the elephant in the room and reshape or alter its continuity. •

June 1, 2007

Medhane Tadesse of CPRD is a long time specialist on issues of peace and security in the Horn of Africa. He can be reached at mt3002et@yahoo.com