Popular Diplomacy: the new strategy for Somaliland

The latest summit of the African Union, time and again, has miserably failed Somalilanders thanks to the ‘hypocrisy’ of the Union and its member states. I wonder how long and to what extent the AU and its member states will subject the people of Somaliland to negative consequences of non-recognition and unrepresentation at the international field. Let alone without representation and de jure recognition, the world of globalization is increasingly becoming like the Hobbesian state of nature where by long established states are fighting on daily basis for survival and self preservation.

To add injury to the people of Somaliland, the AU keeps on telling Somalilanders that they should wait “patiently” until law is restored and power is consolidated in Somalia. By this reasoning, Somaliland may be forced to wait some more decades in case the current TFG, the government in Somalia proved incapable of delivering stability, peace and reconciliation to Somalis: actually through pragmatic assessment of the realities on the ground chances are that it would fail in delivering these promises.

It seems that there are at least two scenarios in which Somaliland can be recognized and join the international community of states. One is that peace and stability will prevail in Somalia and there will be negotiation between Hargeisa and Mogadishu to formalize and conclude the dissolution of the voluntary union of the 1960. The other scene is that an interest would arise in Somaliland because of, let’s say the discovery of oil in the country, and out of the blue all the big powers will rush to be the first to recognize the nascent state. For me, the latter scene is more probable than the former. If discovering oil in Somaliland is a miracle then stabilizing Somalia by TFG is super-miracle.

Somaliland is destined indefinitely to suffer from the “hypocrisy” of the AU and the international community unless and otherwise the miracle happens.
“What can I do to get my country recognized?” should be a question every Somalilander must start to ask. It is in their efforts to find answer for this question that they would fulfill their civic responsibility and duties because it is the most important determining factor for the future of the nation.
It should be noted that it is a combination of popular and elite diplomacy that can bring about the long anticipated recognition. So far it was only elite diplomacy that was at the front of the campaign for recognition. History, not so far long ago, taught us that the involvement of the ordinary, but concerned, people does add weight to the voices of the elite, however elected representative they are. And I think it is high time that officials at Hargeisa start thinking of public diplomacy where by the mass are active participants in the campaign for recognition.

The full recognition of Bangladesh would have been at least delayed if it were not for the pressure exerted by the Bengali Diaspora in the United Kingdom. There are hundreds of thousands of Somalilanders in the UK and there are many more across the globe. These are resources. They are instruments for the campaign. A little organization and communication is enough to mobilize these people so that they start to exert pressure on their host country. The Somaliland Diaspora in UK can sign petitions, stage demonstrations, and call for hunger strike until their demand of the recognition of Somaliland as a de jure state, is met. Remember what the Kurds in Germany accomplished. They let the whole world know the suffering of Kurds in Turkey.

Ordinary people in Somaliland can sign petitions and send them to the AU, the USA and the EU and China and keep on doing these until they get what they want. It is also true that there are also known external actors that are working day and night to make sure that Somaliland is not recognized. The ordinary Somalilanders can boycott every goods and services coming from these actors and tell the whole world what and why they are doing so.
All these, however, needs the little organization and public relation work by the Hargeisa government. I hope the government doesn’t fail the people of Somaliland. What is important is the end. If elite diplomacy is not working then why not try popular diplomacy!

Kassahun Addis is an independent analyst of politics in the Horn of Africa. He can be reached at kassax@gmail.com.